财说| 主营产品价格翻倍，金瑞矿业还有多少上涨空间？

Core Viewpoint - The price increase of strontium carbonate, driven by changes in the supply chain of strontium ore, has led to significant stock price movements for companies in the A-share strontium carbonate sector, particularly Jinrui Mining, which has experienced consecutive trading limit increases [1] Price Trends and Drivers - Strontium carbonate prices have risen from a low of less than 8,000 yuan/ton to the current 16,000 yuan/ton over the past year, with the price increase starting in Q3 of last year due to the elimination of the "intermittent carbonization method" production process and the bankruptcy of Hebei Xinjie Chemical, leading to a supply-demand gap of 20% [1][2] - Key events contributing to price increases include a fire at a strontium ore refining plant in Mexico, which caused a 10% price spike, and an explosion at Iran's Abbas Port [1][2] Company Performance - Jinrui Mining's production of various strontium carbonate products reached 17,100 tons in 2023, with a projected increase to 21,300 tons in 2024, indicating a capacity utilization rate of 106.5% for 2024 [3] - The revenue for Jinrui Mining is expected to rise to 343 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 24.88%, with net profit reaching 35.01 million yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 356.54% [3] Competitive Landscape - Jinrui Mining's competitor, Hongxing Development, has a cost advantage due to its strontium ore supply being sourced entirely from its parent company, allowing for better cost control [4] - Jinrui Mining's future profit elasticity may be limited compared to Hongxing Development, as it relies on external high-priced strontium ore imports once its low-cost inventory is depleted [4] Profitability Projections - If strontium carbonate prices rise to 20,000 yuan/ton by the end of the year, this could yield an additional net profit of 13 million yuan for Jinrui Mining, with an estimated valuation premium of 400 million yuan based on an industry average PE of 30 times [5]