张尧浠：美联储暗示年内2次降息、金价回踩支撑仍是看涨机会

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for gold prices to rise due to expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, despite recent fluctuations in gold prices and external geopolitical factors [1][7][9]. Market Performance - On June 18, gold opened at $3,390.09 per ounce, fluctuated within a $37.16 range, and closed at $3,369.20, marking a decline of $21.49 or 0.63% [1]. - The dollar index showed a slight increase, which negatively impacted gold prices, while gold faced resistance from the 5-day moving average and support from the 10-day moving average [3][5]. Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates for the fourth consecutive time, indicating a potential slowdown in rate cuts, while also projecting high inflation in the coming months [3][7]. - Recent U.S. CPI and retail data showed unexpected declines, reinforcing signals of economic slowdown and increasing expectations for rate cuts [7][9]. Geopolitical Factors - Tensions between the U.S. and Iran, along with Trump's insistence on rate cuts, have contributed to a mixed market sentiment, affecting gold prices [3][8]. - The reduction in geopolitical risks has led to a more stable outlook, although concerns about trade tariffs and fiscal deficits persist [9]. Technical Analysis - The monthly chart indicates that gold prices have been supported by the 5-month moving average since the beginning of the bull market, suggesting a continued bullish trend despite recent price corrections [11]. - Weekly and daily charts show that gold remains above key moving averages, indicating potential for further upward movement, with targets set at $3,500 and $3,545 [13][15]. Future Outlook - The overall sentiment suggests that gold prices may continue to rise, with potential to exceed $4,000 in the next year, driven by economic uncertainties and ongoing geopolitical tensions [9].