特朗普考虑攻击，霍尔木兹风险骤升？

Core Viewpoint - The escalating military tensions between the U.S. and Iran pose significant risks to the global energy market, particularly with Iran threatening to control the passage through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for oil trade [1][5]. Group 1: U.S.-Iran Relations - President Trump has approved an attack plan against Iran but has not issued a final command, aiming to pressure Iran into abandoning its nuclear program [1]. - The Fordow nuclear facility, heavily defended by Iran, is considered a potential target for U.S. strikes, requiring powerful bunker-busting bombs for destruction [1]. Group 2: Threats to Maritime Trade - Ehsan Khandouzi, former Iranian Minister of Economy, announced that from a specified date, oil tankers and LNG carriers must obtain Iranian approval to pass through the Strait of Hormuz for the next 100 days [2][4]. - Khandouzi emphasized that any delay in implementing this policy could lead to domestic conflict within Iran [2]. Group 3: Strategic Importance of the Strait of Hormuz - The Strait of Hormuz is a vital passage for approximately 20% of global oil trade, equating to about 18 million barrels per day, and is only 33 kilometers at its narrowest point [5]. - The region is experiencing GPS interference, and recent maritime incidents have raised concerns about shipping safety [7]. Group 4: Potential Impact on Oil Prices - JPMorgan has predicted that a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could drive Brent crude oil prices to between $120 and $130 per barrel, significantly impacting global oil trade [7]. - The Strait also accounts for about 30% of global maritime oil trade and 20% of LNG supply, indicating that any disruption could severely affect global energy flows [7].