【UNFX课堂】美联储“按兵不动”后的市场解析：鲍威尔的鹰派信号与全球央行的微妙平衡

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate, aligning with market expectations, as it assesses the impact of previous tightening policies and awaits more data on inflation [1][2] - Chairman Powell's "hawkish" comments emphasized persistent inflation and a resilient labor market, contrasting with market expectations for potential rate cuts in the second half of the year, leading to a surge in dollar buying [1][2] - The dollar index (DXY) rebounded post-decision but faced resistance around the 99.00 level due to technical factors, declining U.S. Treasury yields, and market digestion of the Fed's overall message [1][2][3] Group 2: Geopolitical Factors and Market Reactions - President Trump's optimistic remarks about a potential agreement with Iran provided an unexpected market driver, easing geopolitical tensions and impacting risk premiums [2][5] - The strengthening dollar negatively affected other major currency pairs, with EUR/USD and GBP/USD both declining, reflecting pressure on the Eurozone economic outlook and the Bank of England's policy path [2][5] - The Australian dollar's performance is contingent on upcoming labor market data, which could influence the Reserve Bank of Australia's policy expectations [4][5] Group 3: Commodity Markets - The strengthening dollar and changing geopolitical risks exerted pressure on commodity prices, with West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices retreating despite ongoing tensions in the Middle East [4][5] - Gold prices fell due to the dollar's strength, the Fed's interest rate decision, and easing geopolitical risks, while silver exhibited volatility due to its dual nature as both a precious and industrial metal [5][6] - Market focus will remain on the Bank of England's rate decision and the Australian employment report, which are critical for assessing economic outlooks and monetary policy directions [5][6]