黄金今日行情走势要点分析（2025.6.19）

Core Viewpoint - The gold market experienced fluctuations following the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates, with a cautious outlook on future rate cuts impacting gold prices negatively [3][4]. Fundamental Analysis - Federal Reserve Policy: The Federal Reserve decided to keep the overnight interest rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, aligning with market expectations. Fed Chair Powell indicated a projected 50 basis points cut this year, but future cuts will slow down significantly, with only 25 basis points expected in 2026 and 2027. This cautious stance diminished market expectations for rapid monetary easing, leading to a decline in gold prices [3]. - Impact of Trump's Tariff Policy: Powell noted that high tariffs from the Trump administration could increase inflation, with an expected inflation rate of 3% by year-end. Data from the U.S. Treasury showed customs revenue in May nearly quadrupled compared to the previous year, indicating that high tariffs have significantly raised import costs. While inflation expectations enhance gold's appeal as an anti-inflation asset, a strong dollar and the Fed's cautious monetary policy may limit gold's upward potential in the short term [4]. - Geopolitical Tensions: Military actions by Israel against Iran have heightened tensions in the Middle East, raising concerns about global energy supply and supply chain stability. The dollar's status as a safe-haven asset has strengthened, but gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset remains intact amid increasing geopolitical uncertainties [5]. - Weak Economic Data: The U.S. Labor Department reported high initial jobless claims, indicating weakened labor market momentum. May's single-family housing permits fell to a two-year low, and housing starts hit a five-year low, reflecting the dual impact of high borrowing costs and rising material prices due to tariffs. Signs of economic slowdown may prompt the Fed to reconsider its monetary policy stance, potentially providing upward momentum for gold prices [6]. Technical Analysis - Daily Level: Gold experienced a significant drop after a high opening on Monday, followed by a corrective candlestick on Tuesday. After the Fed's rate decision, gold dipped to 3362, closing with a bearish candle. The 10-day moving average is a critical support level; if it holds, gold may maintain a range-bound pattern. A break below could extend bearish momentum, with the 20-day moving average at approximately 3350 as the next support level. Resistance is seen at the 5-day moving average around 3390 [8]. - Four-Hour Level: Since the significant drop on Monday, gold has faced resistance in the 3400-3405 range during multiple rebounds. This range is crucial for short-term observations; a successful breakout could open further upside potential. Key support is at 3354, which aligns with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level and is near the weekly MA5 moving average. A break below 3354 would lead to further attention on support levels around 3335/3333 [10]. - Hourly Level: Gold has shown a pattern of repeated fluctuations, forming a downward channel since Monday's close. The current support level is around 3360. Until a continuation of the downward trend and a break of this support occurs, the market may continue to exhibit a range-bound behavior [10].