供应扰动加剧 甲醇企稳反弹

Group 1 - The escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East has led to reduced operational loads or shutdowns of some methanol facilities in Iran, resulting in significant supply uncertainty and a projected decline in production [1][2] - Recent Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and military facilities, as well as energy infrastructure, have further intensified the conflict, raising concerns about the potential impact on Iran's natural gas production, which is crucial for methanol production [2][3] - As of mid-June, four methanol plants in Iran were reportedly undergoing maintenance, and the remaining facilities were operating at low capacity, raising concerns about future methanol exports from Iran, a key supplier for China [3] Group 2 - Domestic methanol production in China has been increasing, with a reported output of 46.36 million tons by mid-June, a 17% increase year-on-year, and an estimated annual production of around 100 million tons for 2024 [4] - China's methanol imports from the Middle East accounted for 76% of total imports, with Iran being a significant source, producing 17.16 million tons in 2024, and potentially exceeding 20 million tons in 2025 [3][4] - The ongoing increase in domestic methanol production capacity is expected to mitigate potential supply gaps from the Middle East, suggesting that internal supply and diversified import routes may stabilize the domestic methanol market despite external risks [4]