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辉立证券:首次覆盖飞龙股份给予增持评级,目标价16.6元

Company Overview - Feilong Automotive Components Co., Ltd. is a leading enterprise in the automotive thermal management sector in China, established in 2001, with strong growth in both traditional and new energy sectors [1] - The company focuses on a dual-line penetration strategy in "automotive + general industry," targeting non-automotive fields such as 5G base stations, AI computing centers, new energy storage, hydrogen equipment, and high-end agricultural machinery [1] Client Base - The company has over 200 domestic and international clients, with more than 130 clients in the new energy sector, serving over 300 global factory bases [2] - Major domestic clients include Chery, Seres, Great Wall Motors, and Geely, while international clients include BorgWarner, Cummins, and Daimler [2] Financial Performance - From 2007 to 2024, the company's total revenue compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is 13.7%, with projected revenue of 4.723 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 15.34% [3] - Revenue from engine thermal management components is expected to grow by 19.4%, while new energy-related components are projected to grow by 40.44%, becoming the main growth driver [3] - In Q1 2025, revenue decreased by 10.55% to 1.11 billion yuan, but net profit increased by 3.06% to 123 million yuan, with a gross margin improvement of 4.84 percentage points to 25.33% [3] Traditional Business Stability - The traditional business, particularly the turbocharger shell, benefits from the increasing penetration of hybrid models and export growth, with 2024 sales expected to exceed 5 million units, a year-on-year increase of 27.64% [4] - The turbocharger shell currently accounts for over 45% of the company's revenue, with a market share of 20% and an existing casting capacity of 8 million units [4] - The mechanical water pump, a core product, holds a market share of 25% and has been recognized as a manufacturing champion product since 2020 [4] New Energy and Non-Automotive Expansion - Revenue from new energy and non-automotive sectors is projected to reach 526 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 40.44% [5] - The company's electronic water pump, with a power range of 13W-3500W, has a production capacity of 5.6 million units and is expected to capture over 10% market share in 2024 [5] - A recent order with BYD for 500,000 electronic oil pumps is expected to contribute 160 million yuan in sales revenue over its lifecycle, enhancing future revenue growth [5] Capacity Expansion and International Operations - The company is expanding its production capacity in the new energy thermal management sector, with the second phase of its Zhengzhou and Wuhu factories set to achieve large-scale production [6] - The expected annual production capacity for new energy thermal management components could reach 8 million units, sufficient to meet the needs of approximately 1.2 million new energy vehicles [6] - The Thai subsidiary, Longtai Automotive Components (Thailand) Co., Ltd., is under construction with an investment of about 500 million yuan, expected to start trial production by mid-2025 and achieve full production by the end of 2025 [6] Investment Outlook - The company's dual-line strategy is anticipated to continue releasing performance elasticity with the increasing penetration of new energy vehicles and the growing demand for liquid-cooled servers [7] - Earnings per share are projected to be 0.75, 0.98, and 1.11 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a target price of 16.6 yuan based on a 21 times price-to-earnings ratio for 2025 [7]