桥水谈美国经济：衰退风险降低，但增长阻力仍大

Core Insights - The analysis by Bridgewater Associates indicates that while the U.S. economy appears to be stabilizing, underlying challenges remain, particularly due to tariff policies and the implications of the "Big Beautiful" plan [1][2][3] Economic Conditions - Market indicators suggest a recovery, with U.S. Treasury yields rising to near recent highs and stock markets rebounding from earlier losses, yet actual economic conditions are more complex [1][2] - The tail risks for the U.S. economy have diminished, but growth is still hindered by various factors, including a potential slowdown in consumer spending [2][3] Consumer Spending Trends - Recent data shows initial signs of a slowdown in personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and service sector spending, indicating a cautious consumer sentiment [2][5] - Credit card data from May reflects early signs of reduced consumer spending, particularly in discretionary categories, suggesting a broader trend of consumer caution [7] Labor Market Dynamics - Despite strong job growth, the labor market is showing signs of weakness, with reduced hiring momentum and increased difficulty for the unemployed to find new jobs, which may limit income-driven consumption recovery [2][12] Government Spending and Economic Transition - The transition from public to private sector economic activity faces challenges, as high levels of government borrowing may necessitate elevated interest rates to prevent excessive private sector spending [12][13] - Bridgewater notes that the government's fiscal policies are likely to maintain high borrowing levels, potentially constraining private sector credit availability and impacting productivity growth [14][15]