黄金“滞胀”=铂金新高？突破1300美元大关，铂金今年已涨45%

Group 1: Platinum Price Surge - Platinum prices have surpassed $1300, reaching a nearly five-year high with a year-to-date increase of 44% [1] - In comparison, gold prices have risen nearly 30% this year but are currently consolidating below $3400 per ounce, indicating some weakness [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The rise in platinum is seen as a continuation of global currency devaluation trades, with investors seeking dollar-hedging tools beyond gold, leading to increased interest in silver and platinum [3] - The phenomenon termed "gold fatigue" suggests that as gold prices reach historical highs, investors are looking for opportunities further down the value chain [3] Group 3: Supply and Demand Factors - The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) forecasts a significant market deficit for platinum in 2025, with a shortfall of 966,000 ounces, exceeding previous estimates of 848,000 ounces [5] - Current above-ground inventories can only support three months of demand, indicating a structural deficit that is expected to persist until 2029 [5] - The imbalance between supply and demand is self-reinforcing, with rising prices leading to further consumption of market float inventory, potentially pushing the price discovery mechanism beyond market expectations [5] Group 4: Jewelry Market Demand - Automotive demand remains the primary driver of platinum consumption, accounting for 80% of global usage, but there is a notable increase in demand for platinum jewelry, particularly in China [5] - Analysts highlight a rebound in Chinese consumer interest in platinum jewelry, with a 26% year-on-year increase in platinum jewelry manufacturing, contrasting with a 32% decline in gold jewelry sales [6] Group 5: Diverging Opinions - Despite a generally bullish outlook on platinum, some analysts argue that the market is not as tight as it appears, predicting surpluses in 2024 and 2025 when excluding investment demand [8] - Concerns about global platinum inventory being sufficient challenge the narrative of a supply shortage, suggesting that the market may be misinterpreted [9]