普徕仕2025年中投资展望：债券市场格局转变 企业信贷相比发达市场主权债券前景更乐观

Group 1 - The investment outlook for the second half of 2025 will be influenced by three main themes: the stock market led by large U.S. tech companies expanding to a broader market, a shift in the bond market favoring corporate credit over developed market sovereign bonds, and the increasing importance of active asset allocation strategies in a slowing growth and high inflation environment [1] - U.S. tariffs and retaliatory measures from trade partners are expected to create supply shocks and negatively impact global demand, while fiscal measures like deregulation and tax cuts may pose additional upside risks to economic growth and inflation [1] - The current investment environment is returning to one where returns are generated from a wider range of regions and sectors, necessitating a diversified investment strategy and flexible deployment from investors [1][2] Group 2 - China is advancing in artificial intelligence technology, with expectations for accelerated technological innovation in the coming years, despite challenges in computing power [2] - The transformation of the Chinese consumer market is creating opportunities in sectors such as collectible brands, fresh beverages, and leisure snacks, driven by evolving consumption patterns [2] - The focus on diversifying investments into higher-quality and more resilient emerging market regions is seen as beneficial in navigating risks associated with trade, inflation, and policy movements [2] Group 3 - Given high valuations, there is a cautious stance on stocks, particularly U.S. equities, while European and emerging market stocks are viewed more favorably due to competitive earnings prospects and potential benefits from stimulus measures [3] - A lower allocation to bonds is anticipated due to upward pressure on U.S. interest rates, although a higher allocation to higher-yielding bonds is favored as their fundamentals remain supportive [3] - In a volatile market environment, maintaining a higher allocation to cash is considered prudent as it offers attractive returns and liquidity [3]