IPO扩容出连锁反应，下半年行情蓝图已明！

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the anxiety surrounding the recent IPO acceleration policy announced at the Lujiazui Forum, particularly in light of the 44% decline in the new stock index over the past four years, which has served as a lesson in risk for investors [1][2] - The fear of IPO expansion is rooted in the stark contrast between the slight decline of the Shenzhen Composite Index and the significant drop of 44% in the new stock index since 2020, indicating that the burden of the past four years of IPO activity has fallen on secondary market investors [2] - Interestingly, new stocks often perform exceptionally well in the initial phase of IPO reboots, akin to promotional sales in retail, suggesting that initial enthusiasm can lead to temporary price increases before stabilizing [4] Group 2 - A contrarian perspective suggests that after adjustments in IPO pacing, new market hotspots tend to emerge within three months, driven by the natural flow of new capital seeking investment opportunities [5] - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding institutional behavior through quantitative data, which serves as a direct communication tool for engaging with the market [7] - Observations indicate that stocks with potential often show active institutional behavior at lower levels during periods of volatility, suggesting a calculated approach by institutional investors before significant price movements occur [9] Group 3 - A notable trend in the current market is the increase in institutional lock-up behavior despite overall index adjustments, indicating that large funds are preparing for the next market rally [10] - The essence of investing is framed as a probability game, where the use of quantitative tools can help mitigate information asymmetry, allowing investors to better understand institutional strategies and uncover potential opportunities amidst perceived market risks [12]