以伊冲突对全球能源市场的影响，究竟有多大？

Group 1: Core Insights - The conflict between Israel and Iran is escalating, drawing global attention, particularly in the energy market, due to its implications for geopolitical stability and energy security [1][2] - Israel has targeted Iranian energy infrastructure, including gas processing plants and fuel depots, while Iran has retaliated against Israeli oil facilities [1][2] - The potential for U.S. involvement in the conflict raises concerns about significant disruptions to global energy supplies, especially if Iran were to block the strategic Strait of Hormuz [2][10] Group 2: Oil Market Impact - Since the onset of the conflict, Brent crude oil prices have surged by 9% to 10%, with prices reaching around $76.43 per barrel for August delivery [3] - The conflict has primarily affected market sentiment rather than actual supply, with Brent crude prices fluctuating between $75 and $78 per barrel [3][11] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that global oil supply will exceed demand significantly this year, despite the geopolitical tensions [6][7] Group 3: Natural Gas Market Impact - The natural gas market, particularly in Europe, has been affected by the conflict, with the Dutch TTF gas benchmark price rising due to Israel halting production at its major offshore gas fields [4][20] - The conflict has led to increased shipping costs and insurance premiums as vessels reroute to avoid the Strait of Hormuz, indicating that the market is factoring in "blockage risks" [19] Group 4: Diesel Market Dynamics - Diesel prices have seen the most significant increases, with U.S. diesel prices rising by 10 cents to $3.571 per gallon, while gasoline prices increased by only 3 cents [20][21] - The conflict has exacerbated existing tensions in the diesel market, with U.S. diesel inventories at a 20-year low and European refiners facing operational disruptions [20][21] - If the Strait of Hormuz were to be blocked, it could lead to chaos in the diesel market, as approximately 850,000 barrels of diesel are transported through the strait daily, accounting for 3% of global demand [22] Group 5: Geopolitical Risks and Future Scenarios - Analysts express concerns that the situation could escalate beyond the current conflict, potentially leading to severe disruptions in oil supply and price spikes [24][26] - The possibility of Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz remains a significant concern, with analysts divided on the likelihood of such an action due to its economic implications for Iran [10][14] - The strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz is underscored by the fact that it handles about 20% of the world's oil and LNG trade, making any disruption a critical issue for global energy markets [18]