巨富金业：关税与通胀压力下，鲍威尔释放灵活政策信号

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25%-4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive pause since December 2024, aligning with market expectations [2] - The Fed's statement highlighted robust economic activity and low unemployment, but noted that inflation remains slightly elevated, indicating caution regarding external risks and tariff policy impacts [2] - The latest dot plot revealed significant internal divergence on the interest rate path for 2025, with 7 officials believing no rate cuts are necessary, while 10 support two rate cuts, reflecting a more conservative stance compared to March [3] Group 2 - The Fed revised its economic outlook, lowering the 2025 GDP growth forecast from 1.7% to 1.4% and raising core PCE inflation expectations from 2.8% to 3.1%, alongside an increase in the unemployment rate forecast from 4.4% to 4.5% [6] - The impact of tariffs on inflation expectations is reshaping the economic landscape, with the Fed anticipating core PCE inflation to rise to 3.1% in 2025, prompting a delay in rate cuts to prevent inflation expectations from becoming unanchored [7] - Fed Chair Powell emphasized a "data-dependent" approach, indicating that decisions will be based on labor market conditions, inflation data, and tariff effects, allowing for flexibility in policy responses [8] Group 3 - Geopolitical risks, such as conflicts in the Middle East and escalating global trade tensions, complicate the Fed's policy path, with current market focus on the Fed's policy trajectory and economic data rather than short-term safe-haven demand for gold [9] - Following the Fed's hawkish stance, the dollar index rose to 98.85, putting downward pressure on gold prices, which fell below the previous trading range, with a short-term bearish trend established [10] - Experts suggest that while gold may face short-term pressure due to the Fed's anti-inflation stance, it remains a core asset in a long-term stagflation environment, with potential for recovery if inflation data falls below 2.8% [12]