美联储不降息还能拖多久？

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without a rate change, reflecting the fragile state of the U.S. economy amid conflicting pressures [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The removal of the phrase "risks of inflation and unemployment are rising" indicates a shift in the Fed's assessment of economic risks from "broad vigilance" to "structural caution" [2]. - The OECD has significantly downgraded the U.S. economic growth forecast for 2025 from 2.2% to 1.6% and raised the inflation forecast to 3.2%, highlighting a typical sign of stagflation risk [2]. - The Fed's latest economic projections show an increase in core inflation expectations for 2025 from 2.8% to 3.1%, while GDP growth expectations have been reduced from 1.7% to 1.4% [2]. Group 2: Impact of Trade Policies - U.S. tariff policies are a major variable affecting economic and policy outlook, with the Fed remaining highly vigilant about the impact of trade conditions on inflation [3]. - Increased tariffs are expected to raise import prices, exacerbating inflation in the short term while suppressing demand, with long-term effects dependent on various complex factors [3]. - The Fed's cautious stance reflects both prudence and a sense of helplessness in the face of trade protectionism, policy uncertainty, and unexpectedly resilient inflation, leading to rising living costs and job market instability for Americans [3].