综述｜美联储保持观望 货币政策走向更多受制于通胀

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate unchanged amid pressures from the Trump administration for rate cuts, while raising inflation expectations for 2025-2027, indicating that inflation factors will significantly influence future monetary policy decisions [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve has kept the federal funds rate unchanged for the fourth consecutive time, following a series of rate cuts that began in September 2024, which cumulatively lowered the rate by 100 basis points [1]. - The decision to remain on hold is attributed to uncertainties surrounding the new government's tariff policies and their actual impact on prices [1]. Group 2: Inflation Expectations - The Federal Reserve's economic forecast summary indicates an increase in expected inflation and unemployment rates for 2025-2027, with the median forecast for the personal consumption expenditures price index rising from 2.7% to 3% for this year, significantly above the long-term inflation target of 2% [1]. - Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that recent months have seen a rise in short-term inflation expectations, driven by tariffs, which could lead to both one-time price increases and prolonged inflationary impacts [2]. Group 3: Future Rate Cuts - Despite expectations of potential rate cuts later this year, analysts suggest that the visible impact of tariffs on inflation and geopolitical tensions affecting oil prices may hinder the Fed's ability to lower rates in the short term [2]. - Goldman Sachs' macro strategist Simon Dunkerley anticipates that the Fed will maintain rates in the upcoming July meeting, but may consider cuts later in the year if the job market continues to weaken [2].