1:1锚定短债，稳定币对美元、美债和美联储意味着什么？

Core Insights - The passage of the GENIUS Act is expected to formally integrate USD stablecoins into a regulatory framework, creating a new channel for global non-USD liquidity to flow into the U.S. market, thereby reinforcing the dollar's global dominance [1][2][3]. Group 1: Impact on U.S. Treasury Securities - The GENIUS Act mandates that all stablecoins must be backed 1:1 by high-quality, low-risk liquid assets, particularly U.S. Treasury securities maturing within 93 days, which will increase demand for short-term U.S. Treasuries [2][3]. - Research indicates that inflows from stablecoins can lower the 3-month Treasury yield by 2-2.5 basis points within 10 days, while outflows can raise it by 6-8 basis points, with Tether (USDT) having the most significant impact [2][3]. Group 2: Risks to Traditional Banking - The U.S. Treasury has warned that allowing stablecoins to pay interest could divert significant bank deposits to these more flexible digital assets, posing a threat to the stability of the traditional banking system [3]. - To mitigate this risk, the GENIUS Act explicitly prohibits stablecoins from paying interest, preventing direct competition with bank deposits [3]. Group 3: Global Digital Dollarization - The regulatory framework established by the GENIUS Act is accelerating the global digital dollarization process, particularly in countries with unstable currencies and high inflation [4]. - A survey sponsored by Visa revealed that 47% of crypto users in countries like Brazil, Turkey, Nigeria, India, and Indonesia use stablecoins primarily for saving dollars to hedge against local currency depreciation [4]. - The share of stablecoin transactions occurring outside North America is projected to exceed 80% in the future, indicating rapid global expansion [4]. Group 4: Cost Efficiency in Cross-Border Remittances - Stablecoins are emerging as a low-cost, efficient alternative for cross-border remittances, with average costs ranging from 0.5% to 3.0%, compared to the global average of 6.62% for traditional remittances [4].