美联储按兵不动背后“暗流涌动”，何时降息成未解之谜｜全球央行观察

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without a rate change, amid concerns of worsening inflation and economic slowdown [1][2]. Economic Forecasts - The Fed projects that by the end of 2025, inflation will rise to 3%, up from a previous forecast of 2.7%, while the unemployment rate is expected to increase to 4.5% from 4.4% [1]. - Economic growth is anticipated to slow to 1.4%, down from the earlier estimate of 1.7% [1][6]. Divergence Among Fed Officials - The latest dot plot indicates a more hawkish stance, with 7 officials expecting no rate cuts this year, compared to 4 in March, while the number of officials supporting two rate cuts has decreased from 9 to 8 [2][3]. - There is a notable split among Fed officials regarding the timing and necessity of rate cuts, reflecting uncertainty in economic conditions [3][5]. Inflation and Tariff Impact - Fed Chair Powell highlighted the uncertainty surrounding the impact of U.S. government tariff policies on inflation, suggesting that these effects may be long-lasting [2][4]. - The Fed is closely monitoring the influence of tariffs on inflation, with concerns that they may lead to persistent inflationary pressures [4][6]. Market Reactions - Following the Fed's decision, market expectations for rate cuts in 2025 were slightly adjusted, with the dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields rising, while U.S. stocks and gold weakened [2][5]. - Current market predictions indicate a 90% probability that the Fed will maintain rates in the upcoming meeting, with a 10% chance of a rate cut [5]. Employment Trends - Recent employment data shows signs of weakness, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.2% and non-farm payrolls falling short of expectations [7]. - The labor market is facing structural pressures, which may increase the demand for rate cuts in the medium to long term [7]. Future Rate Cut Expectations - Economists have differing views on the timing of potential rate cuts, with some suggesting that the Fed may not cut rates more than twice this year due to ongoing inflation concerns [8]. - There is speculation that the Fed may accelerate rate cuts in late 2025 or early 2026 if economic conditions continue to deteriorate [7][8].