日本央行前首席经济学家：若美关税不松绑，今年难加息！

Group 1 - The former chief economist of the Bank of Japan, Seisaku Kameda, indicated that unless there is a dramatic positive turn in U.S. tariff issues, the Bank of Japan may delay interest rate hikes this year [1][2] - The Bank of Japan's May report downgraded inflation expectations, citing uncertainty in U.S. trade policy impacting the export-dependent economy, leading to a forecast of stagnant core inflation [1][2] - Japan's exports fell for the first time in eight years in May, primarily due to the impact of U.S. tariffs on companies like Toyota, which could further pressure Japan's fragile economic recovery [1] Group 2 - Kameda noted that the lack of progress in trade negotiations and insufficient data to assess tariff impacts means the Bank of Japan is unlikely to make significant adjustments to growth and inflation forecasts in the upcoming report [2] - The Bank of Japan's forecast for core consumer inflation is 2.2% until March 2026, slowing to 1.7% the following year, with the timing of the next interest rate hike dependent on corporate capital expenditure and wage increases [2] - The Bank of Japan maintained its interest rates and decided to slow down the reduction of its balance sheet, reflecting a cautious policy stance due to escalating Middle East conflicts and U.S. tariffs [2]