伊以冲突扰动市场，油价金价还会涨多久？

Group 1: Oil Market Dynamics - The Middle East situation has escalated, causing significant volatility in global markets, particularly in oil prices, with Brent crude futures surging over 13% to $78.5 [1][4] - As of June 19, Brent crude futures closed at $76.21 per barrel, while WTI crude futures fluctuated around $73 per barrel [2][5] - Iran's critical position in the oil supply chain is a major factor in the price fluctuations, with its daily oil production reaching 3.35 million barrels in May and exports exceeding 2 million barrels [6][9] Group 2: Geopolitical Tensions and Supply Concerns - The conflict between Iran and Israel has raised concerns about potential disruptions in oil exports, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, which is vital for global oil transport [6][10] - Over 900 vessels in the region have shown abnormal navigation signals, indicating heightened global trade vigilance [7] - Historical threats from Iran regarding oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz have led to fears of supply interruptions, which could significantly impact global oil prices [9][10] Group 3: Price Projections and Market Reactions - Analysts predict that if the conflict escalates and the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, oil prices could rise significantly, potentially exceeding $120 per barrel [9][10] - Current projections suggest that WTI crude could reach the $75-$80 per barrel range, with extreme scenarios pushing it above $80 [10] - Domestic fuel prices in China are expected to rise due to international oil price increases, with recent adjustments reflecting significant hikes [11][12] Group 4: Gold Market Trends - Gold prices have also been affected by geopolitical tensions, with COMEX gold reaching a historical high of $3,452.6 per ounce on June 13, before experiencing a rapid decline due to market panic [4][12] - As of June 18, COMEX gold futures closed at $3,386.4 per ounce, with slight rebounds observed in subsequent trading [13] - The long-term trend for gold remains bullish, driven by factors such as geopolitical conflicts, central bank purchases, and a shift away from U.S. dollar assets [15][18]