ETO Markets 市场洞察：鲍威尔深夜“放鹰”，降息缩水至25基点！黄金多头命悬一线

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is currently facing dual challenges from the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, leading to a complex price movement scenario [1] Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50% during the June 18 meeting, aligning with market expectations [3] - Chairman Powell indicated a slower pace of future rate cuts, with a projected reduction of 50 basis points in 2024 and only 25 basis points in 2026 and 2027, which has weakened market expectations for rapid easing [3] - Powell's comments on inflation, particularly regarding the potential impact of Trump's tariff policies, suggest a projected inflation rate of 3% by year-end, which could support gold's anti-inflation properties but also strengthen the dollar, putting pressure on gold prices [3] Trump Tariff Policy - The tariff policy under the Trump administration is a focal point, with Powell warning that tariff costs will gradually be passed on to consumers, as evidenced by a nearly fourfold increase in customs revenue to $23 billion in May [4] - The anticipated transmission of tariffs to retail prices is expected to manifest in the coming months, particularly affecting categories like computers and audiovisual equipment [4] - While inflation expectations driven by tariffs may provide medium-term support for gold prices, the strong dollar and cautious Fed stance limit short-term upside potential [4] Geopolitical Risks - Recent military actions by Israel against Iran have heightened tensions in the Middle East, raising concerns about energy supply and supply chain stability [5] - The market is speculating on potential U.S. intervention, which has increased risk aversion, although the dollar has strengthened against other safe-haven currencies [5] - The ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, particularly regarding Iran's internet control and conflict escalation, continues to provide potential support for gold prices [5] Economic Data Weakness - Recent economic data indicates weakness, with initial jobless claims decreasing by 5,000 to 245,000, but the four-week average reaching its highest level since August 2023, suggesting a weakening labor market [7] - Housing data shows a decline in building permits to a two-year low and housing starts at a five-year low, reflecting the impact of high borrowing costs and rising material prices [7] - Analysts suggest that trends in unemployment claims may signal economic contraction, which could prompt the Fed to adjust monetary policy, potentially providing upward momentum for gold prices [7] Other Precious Metals - In contrast to gold's performance, silver fell by 1.5% to $36.70 per ounce, while platinum rose by 4.3%, reaching its highest level since February 2021 [8] - The movements in silver and platinum are primarily driven by speculative funds, indicating active market sentiment in the precious metals sector, while gold remains more influenced by macroeconomic and geopolitical factors [8] Future Outlook - The gold market is currently in a complex environment with intertwining bullish and bearish factors [9] - Short-term pressures from the Fed's cautious policy and tariff-induced inflation are countered by potential support from geopolitical risks and signs of economic slowdown [9] - Gold prices are expected to oscillate between $3,300 and $3,400 in the short term, awaiting clear catalysts, while medium-term opportunities may arise if inflation continues to rise and the Fed is forced to accelerate rate cuts [9]