基金经理焦巍、萧楠仍在等待白酒抬头

Core Viewpoint - The traditional liquor sector, particularly the baijiu industry, has experienced a continuous decline over the past four years, reaching a five-year low, while some investors are beginning to show interest in bottom-fishing opportunities as valuations approach historical lows [1][2][4]. Industry Performance - The Wande Baijiu Index has dropped 15.21% year-to-date as of June 18, with all 19 A-share listed baijiu stocks recording declines between -2% and -28% [2]. - Notably, eight baijiu stocks have seen declines exceeding 20%, with Yingjia Gongjiu experiencing the largest drop of 27.81% [2]. - Major baijiu stocks held by public funds, including Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, have all seen price declines, with Kweichow Moutai down 6.50% and Wuliangye down 13.80% year-to-date [2][3]. Investment Trends - Since mid-May, there has been a notable increase in the willingness of funds to buy into baijiu stocks, with the LOF baijiu fund increasing by 300 million shares and the Penghua Zhongzheng Liquor ETF increasing by 4.5 billion shares [1][5]. - Some institutional investors believe that the current low valuations of baijiu stocks may signal a turning point in the next six months to a year, with potential for both performance and valuation improvements [1][6]. Institutional Sentiment - There is a divide among institutional investors regarding baijiu investments, with some funds increasing their positions while others are reducing their exposure [6][7]. - Despite some funds showing interest, many institutions remain cautious, preferring to invest in sectors like insurance and home appliances instead of baijiu [7][8]. Valuation and Dividend Yield - The TTM price-to-earnings ratio for the Wande Baijiu Index is currently at 17.78, which is considered low historically, and the average dividend yield for baijiu stocks has reached 4.37% [9][10]. - Leading companies like Kweichow Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu have TTM P/E ratios around 20 and 17.14, respectively, indicating that many baijiu stocks are trading at historically low valuations [10]. Future Outlook - Some analysts predict that the baijiu sector may experience a recovery in valuations before actual performance improvements, with a potential cycle lasting three to five years [9][10]. - The current market conditions suggest that while there are opportunities for investment in leading baijiu brands, caution is advised due to ongoing inventory pressures and weak demand [11].