美联储的“拖延战术”能扛多久？

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without a rate change [1] - The financial market showed minimal reaction to the Fed's decision, with the S&P 500 index down 0.03% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.10% [1] - The ten-year Treasury yield rose slightly to 4.394%, and the dollar index increased by 0.06% to 98.46 points [1] Group 2 - The Fed's economic outlook reflects a collective understanding among its economists, with predictions for GDP growth in 2025 revised down to 1.4% from a previous estimate of 1.7% [2][3] - The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.5% by the end of this year, indicating a potential slowdown in the job market [3] - Inflation, measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, is anticipated to increase, with core PCE projected at 3.1% for 2025 [3] Group 3 - The complexity of inflation is heightened by domestic economic policies and international geopolitical conflicts, with tariffs expected to raise consumer prices [4] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle Eastern tensions, could significantly impact global inflation [4] - The Fed is cautious about interest rate cuts, with 10 out of 19 officials suggesting the possibility of two rate cuts this year, while others remain skeptical [4][5] Group 4 - High interest rates are suppressing economic activity, with mortgage rates at 6.89% and credit card rates exceeding 20% [5] - The potential for stagflation is a concern, as low retail growth could lead to a chain reaction affecting the job market [5] - The Fed is willing to sacrifice employment and economic growth to maintain a low inflation environment [5] Group 5 - The upcoming earnings reports in July will be crucial for assessing corporate performance amid uncertainty, particularly regarding the impact of tariff policies [6] - The U.S. Treasury issuance market is under scrutiny, reflecting foreign investors' willingness to purchase U.S. bonds [6] - The credibility of the U.S. dollar is questioned in the context of a move away from dollar dominance [6]