Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing unprecedented complexities in 2025, influenced by global economic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions, with gold prices fluctuating around $3,400 per ounce and silver reaching a 13-year high [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Shift - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates in June has led to rising expectations for rate cuts later in the year, with a 77% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September [3] - A shift to a looser monetary policy would weaken the dollar and reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, benefiting its price [3] - Gold's anti-inflation properties are expected to become more pronounced if the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield exceeds 4.2% [3] Group 2: Geopolitical Risks - Escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly between Israel and Iran, have increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, with gold ETF inflows reaching their highest levels since the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict [4] - Gold's role as a crisis hedge is being reinforced by these geopolitical uncertainties, prompting investors to adjust their strategies quickly in response to market changes [4] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The precious metals market is undergoing structural changes, with global silver demand projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 2.9% from 2024 to 2027, driven by industrial applications like photovoltaics and electric vehicles [4] - In contrast, silver supply is expected to grow only 1.2%, leading to a widening supply-demand gap [4] - Gold is supported by ongoing central bank purchases, particularly from China, which has increased its reserves to 73.7 million ounces as of March [4] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis - Technical analysis indicates that if gold stabilizes above $3,450 per ounce, it could target $3,550 to $3,600, while silver faces resistance at $36.5 per ounce [5] - Market conditions, including crowding and profit-taking pressures, are critical factors to consider [5] - Daily reports from the company provide key reference points to help investors avoid common pitfalls in trading [5] Group 5: Company Differentiation - The company, as an AA-class member of the Hong Kong Gold Exchange, emphasizes compliance and security through bank-level fund segregation and regular audits [6] - Technological capabilities include MT4/MT5 platforms that enable millisecond order execution with a slippage rate below 0.5%, achieving an average daily trading volume exceeding $10 billion [7] - The company offers in-depth research services, providing strategic recommendations based on key economic events and market conditions [8] Conclusion - The precious metals market is expected to experience wide fluctuations in the second half of 2025, driven by the Federal Reserve's policy changes, geopolitical conflicts, and supply-demand imbalances [9] - Investors are encouraged to choose platforms that combine regulatory compliance, technological strength, and professional research capabilities to navigate this complex environment [9]
贵金属行情预测分析:黄金白银下半年走势将受哪些因素驱动?
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-06-19 11:37