77%受访酒企市场遇冷！当消费者定义价值，白酒业从何雄起？丨封面观酒

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant shift in the Chinese liquor industry, indicating that the core proposition has transitioned from "enterprise-led" to "consumer-defined value" [1] - The industry is facing challenges such as capacity growth, demand slowdown, and price declines, with a notable shift in consumer preferences towards higher cost-performance alternatives [2][5] Industry Overview - The Chinese liquor industry is currently experiencing a "triple period overlap" characterized by policy adjustments, differentiated consumption structure, and deep adjustments in existing competition [2] - In Q1 2025, the national liquor production was 1.032 million kiloliters, representing a year-on-year decline of 7.2% [2] - 59.7% of enterprises reported a decrease in profits, indicating significant pressure on the industry due to cautious consumer sentiment and rising costs [2] Demand Dynamics - Only 21.1% of enterprises reported an increase in customer numbers, reflecting a consensus on the shrinking consumer base for liquor [5] - Sales during major holidays were disappointing, with 61.5% of distributors and retailers noting a decrease in consumption during the Spring Festival and subsequent days [5] - The report indicates a "旺季不旺" (peak season not prosperous) scenario, with limited demand recovery and weakened consumption scenarios [5] Pricing Trends - The report shows a downward trend in pricing, with the best-performing price ranges being 100-300 RMB, 300-500 RMB, and below 100 RMB [8] - The most significant price inversion occurs in the ranges of 800-1500 RMB, 500-800 RMB, and 300-500 RMB, indicating challenges for products in the mid-range [8] Market Sentiment - 77% of enterprises reported a cooling market, with only 2% perceiving signs of market recovery [13] - The sentiment reflects a persistent pessimism compared to the previous year, where 80% of enterprises felt the market was cooling [13] Strategic Responses - Over 80% of distributors and retailers prioritize cash flow preservation, while 66.7% of liquor producers focus on expanding market share [14][18] - Strategies include concentrating resources on core products, developing new products, and targeting younger demographics [18] Online Sales Growth - From January to May, online liquor sales exceeded 60 million bottles, with total sales surpassing 3 billion RMB [21] - 42.9% of enterprises reported growth in online business, indicating a shift towards digital channels in response to weak traditional sales [21] Long-term Industry Outlook - The report emphasizes the need for a shift in industry expectations, advocating for a focus on value enhancement rather than blind expansion [25] - Recommendations include evolving the manufacturer-distributor relationship into a "value community" and enhancing service experiences in both online and offline channels [25]