领峰环球金银评论：维持高利率政策 黄金承压明显

Fundamental Analysis - The Federal Reserve maintained the target range for the overnight interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%, indicating potential for future rate cuts, but Chairman Powell cautioned against overemphasizing this prediction [1] - Economic forecasts suggest a mild stagflation scenario for the U.S., with expected GDP growth slowing to 1.4% this year, an unemployment rate rising to 4.5% by year-end, and inflation reaching 3%, significantly above current levels [1] - The Fed anticipates a total of 50 basis points in rate cuts this year, with a slower pace of cuts expected thereafter, projecting only one 25 basis point cut in both 2026 and 2027 as inflation returns to the 2% target [1] - Powell noted that the impact of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration will lead to "considerably high" inflation, affecting consumer prices over time [1] Technical Analysis - Gold (XAUUSD) has completed a five-wave downward movement from 3451 to 3362, with a weak technical ABC adjustment, indicating a potential larger downward trend [5] - The MACD indicator for gold shows prolonged low volume below the zero line, suggesting a bearish outlook, with recommendations to consider short positions [5] - Silver (XAGUSD) has shown upward movement from 28.35, currently in a C wave, but has broken the rhythm of top-bottom transitions, indicating a potential technical adjustment [9] - The MACD for silver indicates diminishing bullish momentum, suggesting a preference for short positions [9] Market Strategy - For gold, a short position is recommended around 3390.0, with a stop loss at 3398.0 and a target range of 3380.0-3360.0 [6] - For silver, a short position is suggested near 36.80, with a stop loss at 37.10 and a target range of 36.30-36.00 [10] News Events - Upcoming economic events include Switzerland's trade balance at 14:00, the Swiss National Bank's interest rate decision at 15:30, and the Bank of England's interest rate decision and meeting minutes at 19:00 [10]