美联储释放“鹰派”信号 贵金属承压回调

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's June meeting maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.50%, with a cautious outlook on future rate cuts, reflecting a stable economy but increased inflation and unemployment forecasts [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Policy and Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve's decision to keep rates unchanged indicates a cautious approach amid rising inflation expectations and a downward revision of economic growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 [2]. - The Fed's projections show an increase in the unemployment rate and inflation levels, suggesting a more hawkish stance despite external pressures [2][3]. - The market anticipates potential rate cuts later in the year, with a 73% probability of at least a 25 basis point cut by September, indicating ongoing expectations for monetary easing [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Commodity Prices - The hawkish signals from the Fed have strengthened the US dollar, pushing it above the 99 mark, which has negatively impacted the attractiveness of non-yielding assets like gold [3]. - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are expected to drive demand for safe-haven assets, potentially increasing gold and silver prices if conflicts escalate [3][4]. - Short-term forecasts suggest that gold may test the technical support at $3,380 per ounce, while silver is expected to fluctuate around $36 per ounce, with medium-term targets set between $38 and $40 per ounce [4].