SINOLINK SECURITIES(SH:600109) 智通财经网·2025-06-19 23:04Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the federal funds target rate range at 4.25%-4.50% during the June 2025 meeting, aligning with market expectations, while concerns over "stagflation" risks remain high, making the threshold for restarting the rate cut cycle quite elevated [1][3][4]. Group 1: Economic Predictions and Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve's latest economic forecasts indicate a downward revision in growth predictions and an upward adjustment in inflation and unemployment rate forecasts, reflecting a more hawkish stance [3][4]. - The Fed has lowered the GDP growth forecast for 2025 and 2026 by 0.3 percentage points and 0.2 percentage points, respectively, while raising the core PCE inflation forecast for the same years by 0.3 percentage points and 0.2 percentage points [3]. - The unemployment rate forecast for 2025, 2026, and 2027 has been increased by 0.1 percentage points, indicating a more cautious outlook on the labor market [3]. Group 2: Investment Recommendations - Gold is expected to continue reaching historical highs due to factors such as potential U.S. "hard landing," dollar depreciation, and renewed Fed rate cuts, which are favorable for gold prices [2]. - The pharmaceutical sector, particularly innovative drugs, is anticipated to see upward opportunities in both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks during the Fed's rate cut cycle, driven by policy guidance and improving profit margins [2]. - The U.S. stock market faces significant adjustment risks due to "stagflation," which may pressure both earnings and valuations, necessitating a reassessment of valuation levels [2]. Group 3: Tariff Impacts and Inflation Concerns - The impact of tariffs is expected to become more pronounced in the summer, with the Fed acknowledging that high tariffs are likely to increase inflation and exert pressure on economic activity [4]. - The Fed's monetary policy guidance suggests that rate cuts may not come quickly unless there is a significant deterioration in the labor market or increased economic downward pressure [4]. - The potential for a "liquidity trap" scenario is highlighted, where rising tariffs could exacerbate "stagflation" risks, leading to a possible second round of rate hikes [5].