618被“自家人”踢出局，菜鸟还飞得动吗？

Core Viewpoint - The absence of Cainiao in the recent 618 logistics collaboration between Taobao Tmall and SF Express highlights a significant shift in trust and operational capability within Alibaba's logistics ecosystem, indicating a strategic retreat from reliance on Cainiao for critical delivery services [2][19]. Group 1: Logistics Collaboration - Taobao Tmall announced a partnership with SF Express for "express door-to-door" service, covering 300 cities and emphasizing next-day delivery, while Cainiao was notably excluded from this key initiative [2][3]. - The decision to not utilize Cainiao during the 618 shopping festival reflects a pragmatic choice based on delivery reliability and service quality, as Cainiao's performance has been increasingly questioned [4][19]. Group 2: Performance Metrics - SF Express holds a dominant market share of 63.9% in China's express delivery sector, supported by a robust infrastructure of 379 sorting centers and 12,000 self-owned routes, contrasting sharply with Cainiao's 350 sorting centers and 2,700 routes [3][4]. - Cainiao's logistics capabilities are still in a phase of catch-up, with significantly fewer operational resources compared to competitors like JD Logistics, which boasts over 34,000 delivery personnel and extensive coverage across China [3][4]. Group 3: Trust and Customer Experience - Customer complaints against Cainiao have surged, with over 89,000 valid complaints reported, primarily concerning delivery delays and service quality issues [6][8]. - User experiences shared on social media platforms indicate dissatisfaction with Cainiao's delivery speed, with reports of packages taking excessively long to arrive compared to other services [8][10]. Group 4: Organizational Changes - Cainiao is undergoing a structural transformation to align more closely with its role as a logistics service provider, moving away from a platform-based model to focus on logistics operations [15][16]. - Recent organizational adjustments have seen the transfer of teams responsible for e-commerce logistics to Alibaba's e-commerce business group, indicating a shift in Cainiao's operational focus and diminishing its role in direct delivery services [16][17]. Group 5: Strategic Direction - Cainiao aims to pivot towards a global logistics network, proposing a "global five-day delivery" strategy while facing challenges in establishing a reliable international presence [17][18]. - The current strategic direction reflects a struggle to balance responsibilities between supporting Alibaba's e-commerce operations and developing independent logistics capabilities, leading to a loss of market position domestically [18][19].