张尧浠：降息仍具前景地缘局势紧张、金价调整仍待走强

Core Viewpoint - The outlook for gold prices remains bullish due to potential interest rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical tensions, despite recent fluctuations in price [5][9]. Group 1: Market Performance - On June 19, gold opened at $3368.92 per ounce, reached a high of $3387.63, and closed at $3368.74, with a daily fluctuation of $40.03 [1]. - The market showed signs of support above the mid-line, indicating limited downside potential and a risk of upward movement [1][3]. - The gold price is expected to experience a period of adjustment but may rise again, supported by favorable fundamentals [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates but indicated two potential rate cuts this year, which supports a bullish outlook for gold [5]. - Recent U.S. CPI and retail data showed unexpected declines, raising concerns about economic slowdown and increasing deflation risks, which could lead to further rate cuts [5]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Monthly charts indicate that gold prices have maintained support above the 5-month moving average, suggesting a continued bullish trend [7]. - Weekly charts show that despite recent pullbacks, gold remains above the 5-10 week moving average, indicating a potential for further upward movement [9]. - Daily charts reflect reduced bearish pressure, with multiple support levels suggesting a likelihood of bullish rebounds if prices retrace [10]. Group 4: Future Projections - The ongoing geopolitical conflicts and economic uncertainties are expected to sustain demand for gold, with projections suggesting prices could exceed $4000 per ounce within the next year [5]. - The market is anticipated to remain volatile, with potential resistance levels at $3380 and $3391, and support levels at $3355 and $3325 [10].