焦炭反弹持续性有限

Group 1 - The overall fundamentals of coke have not changed significantly since June, with both supply and demand showing weakness in the off-season, aligning with market expectations [1] - The market's divergence is primarily focused on the supply side of coking coal and the terminal demand for black metals [1] - Since June, coking coal supply has been influenced by more factors than the consistent easing expectations seen from January to May, leading to a gradual recovery of market sentiment [1][4] Group 2 - As of June 18, the price of wet quenching coke at Rizhao Port was 1270 yuan/ton, with an out-of-stock price of 1170 yuan/ton, resulting in a futures warehouse receipt cost of approximately 1330 yuan/ton [2] - The operating pressure on independent coking enterprises has increased following the third round of price reductions, with profits per ton of coke dropping to -46 yuan [2] - The inventory of independent coking plants reached 873,100 tons, significantly higher than the same period last year, indicating a high inventory level [2] Group 3 - The traditional off-season for construction materials has led to a decline in rebar demand, causing a drop in daily molten iron production from 245.64 million tons in early May to 241.61 million tons by June 12 [3] - Independent coking plants' daily coke production decreased to 650,400 tons, reflecting a reduction in production activity due to lower demand [3] - The main drivers for the recent rebound in coke futures prices are the disturbances in coking coal supply and improvements in terminal demand expectations [3] Group 4 - Both domestic and foreign coking coal supplies are showing synchronized reductions, with domestic production decreasing due to regulatory measures and external factors affecting imports [4] - The average daily refined coal output from coking coal mines dropped by 9.3% from mid-May to June 12, indicating a contraction in domestic supply [4] - Recent events have temporarily boosted market sentiment for coking coal and coke, despite ongoing supply concerns [4] Group 5 - Looking ahead, while coking coal supply has contracted in June, production is expected to recover post-safety month activities, although long-term pressures on black metal terminal exports remain [5] - The market is likely to experience a stalemate, with coke futures prices expected to maintain a wide range of fluctuations [5]