甲醇期货持续上涨 原因是？

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in methanol futures prices is primarily driven by geopolitical tensions, particularly the escalation of conflict between Iran and Israel, which has led to significant disruptions in the energy supply chain in the Middle East [3][4]. Group 1: Price Movement - Methanol futures have shown strong performance, with the main contract price rising from 2290 CNY/ton on June 12 to 2543 CNY/ton on June 19, marking an increase of 11.05% [2]. - The market is characterized by rapid price increases and significant volatility [2]. Group 2: Geopolitical Impact - The intensification of the Iran-Israel conflict and attacks on Iranian energy facilities are identified as key factors driving the rise in methanol prices [3]. - Analysts note that the conflict has led to a substantial impact on the Middle Eastern energy supply chain, with Iranian methanol and urea production being forced to reduce output due to natural gas supply interruptions [3]. Group 3: Supply Chain Concerns - The focus of the methanol market is on two main aspects: potential sharp reductions in Iranian methanol supply due to Israeli attacks and the risk of transportation disruptions if the Strait of Hormuz is blocked [4]. - Current unexpected shutdowns of Iranian methanol facilities are being monitored, as the duration of these shutdowns will significantly affect domestic import volumes [4]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The sustainability of the recent price increase in methanol futures is contingent upon the duration of facility shutdowns in Iran; if these shutdowns last less than a month, import volumes may return to normal by September [4]. - The market is also influenced by the dynamics of inland and East China port arbitrage, as well as the demand situation from downstream factories [4][5]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Short-term market conditions have absorbed some geopolitical risks, and if the Iran-Israel conflict does not escalate further, risk premiums may decrease, leading prices to revert to fundamental levels [5]. - In the medium to long term, a higher production-to-sales ratio and low inventory levels are necessary to support methanol prices at elevated levels [5].