以伊冲突对全球大宗商品影响几何？

Group 1: Core Insights - The International Atomic Energy Agency confirmed Iran's failure to comply with nuclear safeguards, leading to an escalation of military conflict between Israel and Iran, marked by airstrikes and missile attacks [1] - The commodity market has shown structural volatility, particularly in energy and precious metals, in response to the geopolitical tensions [1] Group 2: Energy Market Reactions - Brent crude oil prices surged over 10% from $69.36 to $76.7 per barrel between June 12 and June 18, while WTI crude oil rose approximately 2.27% [2] - Natural gas prices increased significantly due to Israel's closure of the Leviathan gas field, with U.S. natural gas futures rising nearly 8% since the onset of the conflict [2] - Gold prices also rose, driven by safe-haven demand, with New York gold futures increasing over 1.8% and international spot gold prices surpassing $3400 per ounce [2] Group 3: Iran's Role in Global Energy Supply - Iran's oil production averaged 3.307 million barrels per day in early 2025, reflecting a 4.07% increase year-on-year, maintaining a high export level of 1.623 million barrels per day in April [3] - Iran holds the world's second-largest proven natural gas reserves, with the South Pars gas field being a critical asset for both domestic energy security and regional export dynamics [3] Group 4: Strategic Importance of the Strait of Hormuz - Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route for global energy, allows it to influence the flow of approximately 18 to 20 million barrels of oil daily, accounting for about 20% of global oil trade [4] - Any potential blockage of the Strait could lead to significant disruptions in global energy logistics, raising concerns about supply chain stability [4] Group 5: Geopolitical Risks and Market Sentiment - Iran has indicated that it may resort to extreme measures, including blocking the Strait of Hormuz, if its national security is severely threatened, which could heighten market fears [5] - The relationship between Iran and the Houthi movement in Yemen poses additional risks to maritime security, potentially increasing global shipping insurance costs and energy transportation expenses [6]