华联期货：黄金长期配置价值凸显

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant impact of geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict between Israel and Iran, on gold prices, with historical data showing a tendency for gold prices to rise during military confrontations in the Middle East [1][3] - Central banks have been on a gold purchasing spree, with annual purchases exceeding 1000 tons for three consecutive years, and a notable increase in purchases in late 2024 and early 2025, indicating sustained demand for gold as a reserve asset [1][2] - The shift in global reserve assets is evident, with gold surpassing the euro to become the second-largest reserve asset globally, now accounting for 21% of total reserves, while the dollar's share has decreased from 72% in 2000 to 58% [2] Group 2 - Three potential scenarios for future gold price movements are outlined: a possible price correction if the Iran conflict does not escalate, a significant price increase if the U.S. engages in direct conflict with Iran, and a sustained demand for gold if there is a large-scale sell-off in the U.S. bond market [3][4] - The ongoing bull market for gold in the first half of 2025 is driven by trade tensions and the continued trend of central banks purchasing gold, alongside a global shift away from the dollar, positioning gold as a key strategic asset in a multipolar world [4]