国盛证券：美联储维持利率不变，未来两个月是重要窗口期

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.5%, aligning with market expectations [1] - Fed Chairman Powell indicated that the impact of tariffs on inflation will take time to materialize, with expectations of a significant rise in inflation in the coming months [1] - The statement from the meeting showed two notable changes: the uncertainty regarding the economic outlook was described as "having decreased, but still very high," and the phrase regarding increased risks of rising unemployment and inflation was removed [1] Group 2 - Following the meeting, U.S. stock markets and gold prices experienced slight declines, while U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index saw minor increases [1] - The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones indices closed nearly flat, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising by 1.6 basis points to 4.39%, and the dollar index remaining steady at 98.9 [1] - The overall message from the meeting indicated limited new information, with the Fed maintaining that economic downward pressure is manageable and inflation poses a greater risk, awaiting more data for future decisions [1] Group 3 - The next two months are critical for observing trade negotiation outcomes and the potential passage of Trump's "Big Beautiful Plan" in the Senate [2] - The escalation of conflict between Iran and Israel adds uncertainty regarding its impact on the global economy and inflation [2] - The next Federal Reserve meeting is scheduled for July 31, where these events may lead to more policy signals [2]