每日投行/机构观点梳理（2025-06-19）

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs indicates that geopolitical risks will elevate oil prices, with Brent crude potentially facing a $10 per barrel risk premium despite expectations of a drop to around $60 per barrel in Q4 under normal supply conditions [1] - Fitch Ratings states that the fiscal outlook for the U.S. remains challenging, projecting that the general government fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP will decrease from nearly 8% in 2024 to 7.1% in 2025, but will rise to 7.6% by 2026 [1] - Mitsubishi UFJ analysts suggest that if the U.S. confirms involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict, the dollar may decline, as U.S. intervention could accelerate the conflict's resolution and reduce Iran's motivation for oil supply disruptions [1] Group 2 - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) reports that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to act hastily in the face of inflation, maintaining a cautious stance and indicating no immediate plans for rate cuts [2] - CITIC Securities expects the Federal Reserve to implement two or fewer rate cuts in 2023, with the central tendency for the target rate remaining at 3.9% [3] - CITIC Securities anticipates that Level 3 (L3) autonomous driving will become the main upgrade direction from Q4 2025 to 2026, driven by increased regulatory focus on safety [4] Group 3 - China Merchants Macro reports that the Federal Reserve's cautious approach to potential stagflation risks is delaying rate cuts, with internal divisions evident regarding future monetary policy [5][6] - Huaxi Securities notes that the market is returning to a volatile pattern, with upward pressure from profit-taking and support for bullish sentiment [6] - Minsheng Macro predicts that hard economic data in the U.S. will likely decline in the second half of the year, with stagflation risks becoming a key factor influencing the Federal Reserve's decisions [6]