6月LPR“按兵不动”，专家预计下半年或降息带动LPR下调

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) at 3.0% for the one-year term and 3.5% for the five-year term, indicating a stable monetary policy outlook in the short term [1][2]. Group 1: LPR Quotation and Monetary Policy - The LPR remained unchanged in June after a 10 basis points (bp) reduction in May, aligning with market expectations and suggesting limited necessity for further monetary policy easing in the near term [1][2]. - The new monetary policy framework positions the 7-day reverse repurchase rate as the primary policy rate, enhancing the transmission of interest rates from short-term to long-term [2][4]. Group 2: Bank Margins and Economic Conditions - Bank net interest margins are under pressure, with the latest data showing a decline to a historical low of 1.43% at the end of Q1, down 9 bps from the previous quarter [2][3]. - The "four balances" principle introduced in this year's Two Sessions emphasizes the importance of maintaining stable interest margins as a key objective of monetary policy [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook and External Factors - Analysts suggest that while there is potential for LPR adjustments, external uncertainties and the need for a balanced approach to monetary policy may limit the extent of future rate cuts [4][5]. - The PBOC's recent reduction of the provident fund loan rate by 0.25 percentage points is expected to create room for further reductions in residential mortgage rates, which could stimulate housing demand [5].