Group 1 - Current spot gold price opened at $3370.38 per ounce, with a daily high of $3370.43 and a low of $3344.71, reflecting a slight decline of 0.7% [1][2] - The market is at a critical juncture between "geopolitical conflict risk" and "hawkish Federal Reserve policies," leading to a stalemate in gold prices [1][3] Group 2 - The ongoing deterioration of the Middle East situation, including an Israeli airstrike on Iranian nuclear facilities and subsequent Iranian missile retaliation, has led to a marginal decrease in safe-haven demand for gold [2][3] - Despite the geopolitical tensions, the market shows signs of fatigue regarding risk, with gold futures in New York down 0.82% and Shanghai gold T+D down 0.63% [2][3] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%, with a shift in the dot plot indicating a reduction in rate cut expectations for 2025 [3][5] - Market participants are still betting on a 62% probability of a rate cut in September, despite the Fed's hawkish stance [3][5] Group 4 - Economic data shows a mixed picture, with initial jobless claims reaching 245,000, the highest in eight months, indicating labor market weakness, while manufacturing and services PMIs suggest economic resilience [5] - The CPI data indicates that inflation pressures may not have fully materialized, but rising oil prices due to Middle East tensions could lead to imported inflation [5] Group 5 - Technical analysis indicates a struggle between bulls and bears, with gold prices facing resistance at the $3400 level and support around the 20-day moving average at $3347 [6][8] - The hourly chart shows a sideways movement in the $3361-$3379 range, with potential for a downward move if the price falls below $3361 [8][10]
巨富金业:地缘冲突与美联储鹰派角力,黄金在“上下”震荡博弈
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-06-20 06:04