大摩：香港住宅市场或处上行周期开始 升恒地评级至“增持”

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley suggests that the Hong Kong residential market may be entering an upward cycle after seven consecutive years of decline, with property prices having adjusted nearly 30% from their historical peak in August 2021 [1] Market Analysis - The report indicates that the potential upward cycle could last for 4 to 5 years, driven by factors such as the Central CCL lagging behind the Hang Seng Index, wage growth improving affordability to 2010 levels, structural benefits like low land supply and the removal of additional stamp duties, and low interest rates [1] Price Forecast - It is anticipated that property prices will increase by 2% in the second half of the year [1] Stock Selection - Morgan Stanley favors stocks such as New World Development (00016.HK), Henderson Land (00012.HK), and Kerry Properties (00683.HK) as they are expected to benefit significantly from the reduction in Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR) and possess ample saleable resources [1] - The rating for Henderson Land has been upgraded from "Market Perform" to "Overweight," while the rating for Sino Land (00083.HK) has been downgraded from "Overweight" to "Market Perform" [1]