亚尼斯·瓦鲁法基斯| 特朗普的稳定币炼金术：为下一场全球金融危机做好准备？

Core Insights - The recent legislative developments in the U.S. and Hong Kong regarding stablecoins highlight their growing importance as a bridge between digital and traditional finance, with major companies like JD and Alibaba seeking stablecoin licenses [1][3] - Stablecoins are seen as a tool for enhancing cross-border payments, but they also pose significant regulatory challenges and risks to the traditional financial system [1][5] Group 1: Legislative Developments - The U.S. Senate passed the GENIUS Act, establishing a federal regulatory framework for dollar-pegged stablecoins, while Hong Kong has implemented comprehensive regulations for fiat-backed stablecoins [1][3] - The GENIUS Act is viewed as a means to weaponize stablecoins, intertwining them with U.S. dollar dominance and potentially undermining financial stability [5][15] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The total market capitalization of stablecoins has reached $250 billion, with Tether alone generating $13 billion in pre-tax profits, indicating a significant financial impact [6][7] - The number of stablecoin wallets surged from 27 million to 46 million year-over-year, with transaction volumes increasing by 84%, showing a growing reliance on stablecoins for crypto trading [6][7] Group 3: Systemic Risks - The potential for moral hazard exists as stablecoin issuers may over-issue tokens beyond their dollar reserves, leading to a risk of runs similar to bank runs [9] - The migration of deposits from U.S. banks to stablecoins could create financial instability, as it may lead to increased demand for U.S. Treasuries and affect interest rates [10] - The collapse of stablecoins could have severe repercussions for the broader financial system, particularly if they are tied to major financial institutions [11][13] Group 4: Global Implications - The potential failure of stablecoins issued outside the U.S. could transmit financial risks globally, raising concerns among European and developing nations about their reliance on dollar-backed stablecoins [14] - Countries like China are taking proactive measures to mitigate risks associated with stablecoins by promoting their own digital currencies [14] Group 5: Future Outlook - The GENIUS Act's regulatory framework may inadvertently pave the way for a financial crisis by allowing unregulated stablecoin proliferation and limiting the Federal Reserve's ability to respond effectively [15][16] - The projected growth of stablecoins could lead to a significant shift in the financial landscape, with estimates suggesting a potential increase to $2 trillion by 2028 [7][8]