嘴上鹰派，行动迷茫！美联储“盲飞”模式开启

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has slightly shifted towards a hawkish stance, indicating greater concern over rising inflation than slowing growth, while Chairman Powell advises caution regarding this outlook [1][2]. Economic Forecasts - The revised economic forecasts from the Federal Reserve suggest an expected increase in unemployment and inflation rates in the coming quarters, alongside a slowdown in economic growth, with rising "stagflation" risks [1][2]. - The cumulative GDP growth rate forecast for 2025-2027 has been lowered by approximately 1.25 percentage points compared to the previous December estimate, while the cumulative inflation rate is projected to be about 1 percentage point higher [2]. Interest Rate Expectations - Despite balancing growth and inflation risks, Federal Reserve officials have lowered the interest rate cut expectations for the next two years by 25 basis points, indicating a higher "terminal" rate [2]. - This hawkish inclination may be aimed at managing sentiment, as recent surveys show consumer inflation expectations have surged to their highest levels in decades [2]. Motivations Behind Hawkish Stance - The Federal Reserve's previous misjudgment during the inflation surge of 2021-2022 has led to a desire to avoid repeating past mistakes, contributing to the current hawkish approach [3]. - Ongoing fiscal and institutional risks in the U.S., including persistent budget deficits and rising debt burdens, are influencing the decision to maintain higher long-term policy rates [3]. - Public criticism from former President Trump regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies may also be prompting the Fed to assert its independence [3]. Uncertainty in Decision-Making - The Federal Reserve is currently facing significant uncertainty regarding future economic conditions, which is unique compared to other countries [5]. - Chairman Powell's approach appears to be one of waiting to see the effects of Trump's tariff policies before making further decisions, reflecting a rationale for inaction in a seemingly healthy economy [6]. - The usefulness of the Federal Reserve's "dot plot" for interest rate predictions is being questioned, as there is a lack of confidence in the projected paths due to high uncertainty [6]. Future Outlook - The next revision of economic forecasts by the Federal Reserve is expected in September, when the impacts of tariffs, Middle Eastern tensions, and the U.S. fiscal outlook should become clearer [6].