金荣中国：现货黄金延续震荡下行节奏，继续刷新本周低点

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices continued to decline, reaching a weekly low of approximately $3344 before rebounding to around $3357 during the Asian session on June 20 [1] - On June 19, gold prices experienced significant volatility, hitting a low of $3347.53 and a high of $3387.77, ultimately closing at $3370.64, nearly flat [1] - The US dollar index rose to a one-week high of 99.16 but retraced some gains by the end of the session, with a weekly increase of about 0.7%, marking the strongest weekly performance since late February [1] Monetary Policy Impact - The Federal Reserve maintained current interest rates but indicated potential for future rate cuts, while Chairman Powell cautioned against excessive expectations for rate reductions [2] - Powell highlighted that upcoming tariffs from the Trump administration could increase commodity prices, leading to a rise in inflation during the summer [2] - The Fed's vigilance regarding inflation risks diminishes the likelihood of rate cuts, putting direct pressure on gold prices as high-interest environments make gold less attractive compared to yield-bearing assets [2] Geopolitical Tensions - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict between Israel and Iran, provided significant support for gold prices as a safe-haven asset [4] - The escalation of airstrikes and missile attacks between Israel and Iran has heightened concerns over global security, leading to increased demand for gold [4] - The Iranian Revolutionary Guard's claims of targeting Israeli military facilities and Israel's accusations of attacking civilian targets have intensified the conflict, further driving up market anxiety [4] Diplomatic Efforts - Diplomatic communications are ongoing, with US Middle East envoy engaging with Iranian officials to seek a resolution to the crisis [5] - Iran has stated it will return to negotiations only if Israel ceases its attacks, while E3 and EU are planning meetings with Iranian officials to explore diplomatic solutions [5] - The persistence of geopolitical risks suggests that demand for gold as a safe-haven asset may continue in the near term [5] Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold prices showed a small-bodied close, indicating pressure, with potential further declines if the market falls below $3350, possibly testing above $3300 [8] - Short-term movements have been fluctuating below $3400 since a peak of $3452, with recent tests below $3350 indicating a bearish trend [8] Trading Strategies - Aggressive long positions can be attempted around $3332 with a stop loss at $3327 and a target near $3350/$3360 [9] - Aggressive short positions can be initiated around $3370 with a stop loss at $3377 and a target near $3343/$3333 [9]