KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Di Yi Cai Jing·2025-06-20 09:21Core Viewpoint - The price of Feitian Moutai is experiencing fluctuations in online platforms, but the offline market remains stable with prices around 2100-2200 RMB per bottle, indicating strong demand and brand loyalty [1] Demand Side: Strengthening Consumption Foundation - Key indicators such as "opening rate," "sales volume," and "distributor inventory" reflect a robust demand for Feitian Moutai, with increasing opening rates noted by distributors [2] - The most popular product remains the 500ml Feitian Moutai, favored for its versatility in gifting, investment, and collection, with low inventory levels reported by distributors [2] - The consumer demographic includes private business owners and private equity professionals, who purchase Moutai for significant events and social gatherings, indicating a stable demand [2] Supply Side: Unchanged Scarcity Value - The scarcity value of Feitian Moutai remains intact, with a production capacity of only 57,200 tons in 2024, representing just 0.6% of China's total liquor production [4] - Structural shortages persist due to production limitations and lengthy processes, with extremely low winning rates for special editions highlighting the supply-demand gap [4] - The cultural value of Moutai is increasingly recognized by consumers, with quality and cultural significance becoming core elements of its appeal [4] - In Q1 2025, Guizhou Moutai reported total revenue of 51.443 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 10.67%, and a net profit of 26.847 billion RMB, up 11.56%, demonstrating the company's resilience in the industry [4]