Core Viewpoint - Apple's stock price has entered a bear market, down 25% despite broader market gains, raising concerns among investors about tariffs, slowing revenue growth, and antitrust lawsuits impacting future earnings [1][2]. Group 1: iPhone Sales and Hardware Innovations - iPhone sales remain strong, generating over $100 billion in revenue in the last six months, making it the world's most popular smartphone by revenue [4]. - Sales have stagnated in recent years, with longer upgrade cycles leading consumers to wait more years before purchasing new devices, posing a significant challenge to revenue growth [5]. - Apple's Vision Pro virtual reality headset, launched at $3,500, has underperformed with unit sales estimated at less than 1 million, indicating ongoing reliance on iPhone sales for revenue growth [6][7]. Group 2: Services Revenue and Antitrust Issues - Apple's services segment, including App Store revenue and first-party apps, has grown from $13 billion in 2012 to $102 billion in the last 12 months, with high profit margins [8]. - The App Store's monopoly has been challenged by a court ruling allowing developers to use cheaper payment methods, potentially reducing App Store revenue by at least $10 billion annually [10]. - An antitrust case regarding Google's payment to be the default search engine on Apple devices could impact over $20 billion in annual profit, threatening the services division, which has been a key growth area [11][12]. Group 3: Valuation and Market Risks - Despite a decline in stock price, Apple's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is about 30.5, higher than many faster-growing tech peers, indicating it is not cheap [14]. - Apple's net income has not grown since 2022, making it one of the slowest-growing stocks with a high P/E ratio, which is a concerning combination for investors [15]. - The ongoing trade war between the U.S. and China poses tariff risks, as Apple relies heavily on Chinese assembly for its devices, complicating potential cost structures [16][17].
Should You Buy the Dip on Apple Stock This Year?