经济学“已死”？专家警告：所有旧经验法则已完全失灵！

Group 1 - Norway's unexpected interest rate cut highlights increasing investor anxiety amid geopolitical tensions, trade risks, and a volatile dollar, complicating global monetary policy and inflation predictions [1] - The Swiss National Bank also reduced borrowing costs to 0%, indicating a bleak global outlook, which surprised some market participants [1] - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, with Chairman Powell acknowledging the uncertainty surrounding future rate paths, contributing to market volatility [1] Group 2 - Investors anticipate rising volatility due to geopolitical disruptions affecting the dollar and oil prices, diminishing central banks' ability to provide clear future guidance [2] - European central banks are diverging from the Fed, struggling to navigate a new era where the dollar has become weaker and more unstable under trade war pressures [3] - The dollar has declined nearly 9% against other major currencies this year, with a recent uptick following conflicts between Israel and Iran [3] Group 3 - The unexpected rate cuts from central banks may lead to a new normal characterized by increased market volatility and rapid shifts in asset pricing and narratives [3] - The Swiss franc has appreciated significantly as investors seek non-dollar wealth storage, impacting import costs and pushing the economy towards deflation [4] - The Swiss franc rose against the dollar as traders deemed the Swiss National Bank's rate cut insufficient to combat deflation [5] Group 4 - Global equity market risks are rising, with options products designed to mitigate upcoming volatility appearing relatively cheap [6] - There is a focus on purchasing bonds from countries where inflation and interest rates may significantly decline, while maintaining a negative outlook on long-term U.S. and German bonds due to higher economic uncertainty [6] - Despite concerns, global equity markets remain nearly 20% higher than their lows in April, indicating resilience amid tariff-related worries [6]