6月LPR“按兵不动”，增量政策或将延至四季度

Core Viewpoint - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remains unchanged for June 2025, with the 1-year LPR at 3% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%, reflecting market expectations and the stability of policy rates [1][4]. Group 1: LPR and Monetary Policy - The LPR was last adjusted in May 2025, where both the 1-year and 5-year LPRs were reduced by 10 basis points [4]. - Factors influencing the stability of the LPR include the expectation of steady policy rates and ongoing pressure on bank interest margins [4][5]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the importance of a smooth monetary policy transmission mechanism and aims to lower the overall financing costs in the economy [5][6]. Group 2: Banking Sector Performance - As of the end of Q1 2025, the net interest margin of commercial banks has decreased to a historical low of 1.43%, down 9 basis points from the previous quarter [4]. - The decline in net interest margins across various types of banks indicates a challenging environment for profitability and growth [5]. - The pressure on banks' interest margins is expected to limit the potential for further LPR reductions in the near term [5][6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The potential for further LPR adjustments in the second half of 2025 remains, with expectations of additional monetary easing depending on domestic and international economic conditions [5][6]. - The focus of future monetary policy may shift towards reducing non-interest costs and enhancing the overall financing environment for businesses and households [6].