终端消费进入淡季 沪锡震荡回落【6月20日SHFE市场收盘评论】

Core Viewpoint - The tin market is experiencing a significant price adjustment due to a combination of weak demand and supply disruptions, with the price of tin futures closing at 260,560 yuan/ton, down 1.2% [1] Group 1: Supply Dynamics - Supply concerns have shifted focus to the resumption of tin mining in Myanmar's Wa region, with current production only reaching 50% of planned capacity [1] - Domestic tin supply remains tight, with smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi operating at low capacity due to a shortage of tin concentrate [1] - The processing fee for 40% grade tin concentrate in Yunnan has dropped to historical lows, leading some companies to reduce production or undergo maintenance [1] Group 2: Demand Trends - Downstream demand is weak, with limited acceptance of high prices, resulting in transactions primarily driven by immediate needs [1] - The automotive electronics sector benefits from increased penetration of new energy vehicles, but overall procurement remains cautious, characterized by "small batches and multiple batches" [1] - Seasonal characteristics are evident, with a decline in orders for photovoltaic components and consumer electronics, further suppressing tin price potential [1][2] Group 3: Market Outlook - The short-term outlook indicates a continuation of weak supply and demand, with a decline in orders from the end market during the off-season [2] - Domestic smelters are facing raw material shortages, leading to a decrease in operating rates and low processing fees for tin concentrate [2] - Current inventory levels are low, providing some support for prices, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [2]