美联储预测变脸，特朗普开启“黄金时代”的梦想泡汤？

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve officials believe that Trump's policies are dragging down the economy, increasing unemployment and inflation, and unresolved tariff disputes may lead to new shocks in the coming weeks [1] - The Fed has decided to delay planned interest rate cuts until the fall, awaiting resolution on tariffs and other government priorities, and now expects a slower pace of rate cuts with higher terminal rates [1][2] - The Fed's decision contrasts with other central banks that are continuing to cut rates, highlighting the impact of Trump's early policies, particularly tariffs, on the short-term outlook of the U.S. economy [1][3] Group 2 - Powell indicated that more information regarding tariffs will be available this summer, and the Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50% while predicting a significant rise in inflation by the end of the year [2] - Despite investor expectations for a rate cut in September, this largely depends on the progress of Powell's "watchful summer" regarding tariffs [3] - The Fed's recent policy statement noted that uncertainty in economic outlook has decreased since the May meeting, but the upcoming July 9 deadline for tariff agreements could quickly change the situation [3][4] Group 3 - The economic outlook has dimmed significantly compared to the Fed's previous expectations of a "soft landing," with GDP growth forecasts revised down from 2.1% to 1.4% and unemployment expected to rise to 4.5% by year-end [5][6] - Powell previously described the U.S. economy as performing "very well," but the current outlook is much less optimistic, with inflation expected to rise to 3% by year-end and remain above target levels until 2026 [6] - The Fed's decision-makers have indicated that if employment weakens, policy expectations may shift rapidly, as labor demand is softening and job creation is slowing [9]