一周热榜精选：中东火药桶会否引爆全球危机？特朗普希望降息250基点

Market Overview - The US dollar index maintained a volatile upward trend this week, supported by retail data, risk aversion, and fluctuations in US Treasury yields, closing at 98.72, potentially marking the largest weekly gain in a month [1] - Spot gold prices fell to $3353 per ounce, influenced by profit-taking and a stronger dollar, while silver prices dropped to $36 per ounce after reaching a 13-year high earlier in the week [1] - Oil prices experienced significant volatility driven by geopolitical news, with fluctuations influenced by tensions in the Middle East and US political statements [2] Investment Bank Insights - Goldman Sachs predicts that geopolitical risks will elevate oil prices, suggesting a risk premium of $10 per barrel for Brent crude [5] - Citigroup expects Brent crude prices to stabilize between $70 and $80 per barrel [5] - Goldman Sachs' strategy team introduced the concept of "China's Ten Giants," including Tencent, Alibaba, and others, indicating their potential to dominate the market similar to the "Magnificent Seven" in the US [5] Central Bank Actions - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.50%, indicating potential for two rate cuts within the year, despite internal divisions among officials [9] - The Swiss National Bank lowered its benchmark interest rate to zero, becoming the first major central bank to return to a zero interest rate environment post-pandemic [13] - The Bank of Japan maintained its target rate at 0.5%, continuing its current bond reduction plan [14] Geopolitical Developments - The ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel has escalated, with significant military actions reported, raising concerns about potential regional war and global geopolitical shifts [6][7] - The US military has increased its presence in the region, with indications of possible military action against Iran, although diplomatic negotiations are also being explored [7][8] Regulatory Changes - The US Senate passed the "Genius Act," establishing a federal regulatory framework for stablecoins, requiring issuers to hold equivalent cash or short-term US Treasury securities for every dollar of stablecoin issued [21] - The People's Bank of China conducted significant reverse repo operations to ensure liquidity in the market, indicating a proactive approach to managing financial stability [22] Central Bank Gold Holdings - The World Gold Council's survey indicates a rising interest among central banks in increasing gold reserves, with 95% of respondents expecting to add to their holdings in the next 12 months [23]