原油突发跳水！伊朗核谈判希望重燃？全球市场紧盯油价

Core Viewpoint - The oil market is experiencing significant volatility due to the changing situation in the Middle East, particularly the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran, which has led to sharp declines in oil prices after a period of strong performance [1][11]. Oil Market Performance - As of the latest report, Brent crude oil futures have dropped over 3%, trading at $76.34 per barrel, while WTI crude is down 0.91% at $73.21 per barrel [2]. - Despite recent fluctuations, international oil prices have shown strong overall performance, with Brent crude prices rising over 20% since the beginning of the month, potentially marking the largest monthly increase since 2020 due to the escalating situation in Israel [2]. Nuclear Negotiations - There are renewed hopes for nuclear negotiations as Iranian officials indicate readiness to discuss uranium enrichment limits, although they firmly reject any proposal for zero enrichment, especially in light of Israeli attacks [4][6]. - European powers are playing a more prominent role, with Iran expressing a need to hear proposals from the three European countries regarding the nuclear issue [5]. - The recent statements from Iranian officials suggest a glimmer of hope for the resumption of nuclear talks, despite previous assertions that Iran would not engage in dialogue as long as Israel continues its attacks [7][9]. Market Reactions and Economic Implications - The market is closely monitoring oil prices, which have been under pressure following Iranian officials' comments, despite earlier expectations of a third consecutive week of price increases [11]. - The ongoing conflict has raised concerns about potential U.S. intervention, which could further impact oil supply and prices [12]. - Economists warn that high oil prices act like a tax, disproportionately affecting net energy-importing countries such as Japan and those in Europe, with Eastern European nations being particularly vulnerable to rising oil prices [18][19]. - Citigroup predicts that if Iran's daily export of 1.1 million barrels is disrupted, oil prices could rise by approximately 15% to 20%, reaching the $75 to $78 range, while Goldman Sachs anticipates Brent crude could soar above $90 under reduced supply scenarios [19].