特朗普“暂缓”背后：常规武器无法摧毁伊朗核设施，贸然参战可能收获另一场“利比亚危机”

Group 1 - Market sentiment has eased, with oil and gold prices retreating while European stocks and cryptocurrencies have risen, following Trump's announcement to decide on military action against Iran within two weeks, alleviating concerns over escalating Middle East conflicts [1] - The Pentagon has suggested that the powerful 30,000-pound bunker buster may not be sufficient to destroy Iran's key nuclear facility buried in the Fordow mountain, indicating that a nuclear bomb might be necessary for such an operation [2] - U.S. intelligence officials have warned that even if various facilities are bombed, Iran could still possess the capability to produce nuclear weapons if it decides to do so [3] Group 2 - Intelligence officials cautioned that U.S. involvement in a conflict with Israel could provoke Iran to pursue nuclear weapons, despite Iran's long-standing commitment to peaceful nuclear development under the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) [4] - Trump's decision-making timeframe reflects concerns about Iran potentially becoming a failed state similar to Libya after regime change, which could complicate negotiations with Iran and other nations [5] - The chaotic aftermath of Libya's regime change in 2011 serves as a warning for leaders regarding U.S. intervention, with ongoing instability and humanitarian crises persisting in the region [6]